Everything seems to be pointing toward a Florida loss on Saturday. The Gators are banged up, especially on the defensive line, the offense is coming off a putrid performance against FAU, the line can’t protect, Treon Harris is stone cold and Dalvin Cook is running red hot. It’s such a positive Seminole slant that it makes me think going with the Gators might be the way to go on this pick.
But, I just can’t do it.
Florida’s defense will make Cook earn his yards keep the Gators in the game, but I just don’t see how this inept offense is going to score enough points to win the game. I have a hard time seeing the offense scoring any more than 10 points, and that’s simply not enough.
The Seminoles, I’m sure, will take the same defensive approach to the Gators that Vanderbilt and FAU did. They’ll run blitz a whole bunch and come after Harris on obvious passing downs. And the offensive line will not be able to hold up against the steady pressure. I see a lot of negative plays for Harris and the offense.
FSU has struggled some on offense, too, especially on the road, where the Seminoles are averaging only 15 points a game. But if they can match that average Saturday night, it might be enough to give FSU its third consecutive win in The Swamp.
As for Cook, I see him eventually breaking off some long runs against a Florida defense that will eventually wear down because it’s on the field so long due to the UF offense’s inability to sustain drives.
Part of me says to pick Florida. But to stay perfect in the picks (I’m 11-0), I’ve got to go with the Seminoles on this one.
Prediction: Florida State 21, Florida 6 (a TD and a blocked extra point).