Penn State prediction time

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Earlier in the week, this seemed like any other game week around the Florida football team. That has changed here in the last few days. It has started to feel a lot different, and a little sad. The reality has started to sink in for everybody that Urban Meyer’s farewell is now at hand. He’s down to his last game. Meyer didn’t say so at his news conference Friday, but I think it’s really starting to hit him, too.

This is going to be a very emotional game for the Gators and their fans (and certainly for Meyer and his family). The players have vowed to win this game for a coach they admire and love. I know, they vowed to play their hearts out in the South Carolina and Florida State games, too, and they lost both those. But I have a feeling this one is going to be different.

I think the Gators are going to reach an emotional peak that they have not been at for quite a while – at least not this season. And Meyer and his staff have had almost a month to straighten things out on offense and come up with a plan that will be functional against Penn State. The defense should be fine against a Penn State offense that is fairly basic and lacks the overall speed the Gators have faced all season in the SEC.

These two teams are very evenly matched. They’ve both lost five games and have had to deal with injuries and other distractions. In a game like this, you look for the team with the edge – and that’s Florida. The Gators have a huge emotional edge over the Nittany Lions.

The Gators, especially these seniors who are so close to Meyer, are playing for something that almost feels like a championship. They’re playing to send Urban Meyer out the right way – with a victory in his final game.

Prediction: Florida 28, Penn State 10.

40 COMMENTS

  1. Thanks for the analysis. While Florida should be better against PSU than against FSU and USCe (both being better teams), the fact is that PSU likes to pound it up the middle. The problem? UF hasn’t been able to stop anybody from pounding it up the middle. Add to that a few injuries along the defensive line, and I think our D ends up spending 2/3 of the game on the field, while the offense tries like hell and sputters.

    17-10 Florida (but only because i’m a homer, we will probably lose this game)

  2. If Demps and Rainy are healthy, this will be a blow out for the Gators. Penn State lost 5 games in the Big 10, wit the exception of Ohio State and this year’s Michigan State, there just isn’t the speed of the SEC. If the Gators can hit one long pass to Hammons or Hines that will open up the run game, with Demps, Rainy and Gillespie but if Brantley throws that underneath crap all game Penn State will load the box and drop LB’s in pass coverage and we will lose.

    One deep ball and Gators roll 35 to 17
    No deep ball Gators lose 17 to 13

  3. Nice that there’s this sentiment for Coach Meyer, but if we couldn’t get jacked to win the SEC East, AT HOME, against Spurrier, for crying out loud, it’s hard to see emotion carrying the day here, at least beyond the first couple of series. Hopefully, Will Hill won’t be daydreaming about the potential bonus he’ll reap as a 7th round pick (if that) all game. Would love to see the young D-line guys get some serious time to springboard into the 2011 season. Sounds like Penn State doesn’t come with much more firepower than we do, so unless they are absolutely mystified by the dive play, this sucker willl boil down to turnovers. I hope we do send Coacy Meyer out on a high note; thanks Urban, and best of luck with wherever life leads you!

  4. “Straightening things up” on offense and Steve Addazio still the offensive coordinator are two entirely different things. If we intended to straighten things up on O, then Addazio would have been replaced by now. Again I say this… “A leopard cannot change it’s spots”. Addazio will NEVER change. Unless this is a passing-fest style of offensive package with lots of heavy pass-protection packages for Brantley, this will be another typical Addazio dive-play offense attack. Yes, I love my Gators and I want them to win, but unless Penn State is just plain BAD, I expect a low-scoring PSU win. Penn State will have to turn the ball over a few times for UF to win IMO, much like South Carolina is rpesently playing down to FSU’s level and has turned the ball over 4 times in the first half.

  5. JACK, you got me on that one. I don’t know how Weis would leave better money in the NFL and move down to lesser pay in CFB as well as have to deal with all the prima donna headcase HS recruits too. I know CW is still being paid his buy-out clause from ND though. and he’s a millionaire about 12 – 13 times over, so maybe it’s not about the money and more that he likes the college game? I admit to being totally stunned by the move myself.

  6. Robbie —
    The game’s about to start. I just finished watching you and Pat in the Swampcast.
    Pat said he doesn’t have a feel for this game, but you interjected that you’re now leaning toward the Gators.
    I got a HUGE kick out of that, Robbie! You gotta be one of the most loyal Gator fans out there,… to a fault!
    I wish no harm, but if we could see you bleed I swear I’m convinced it would come out ORANGE AND BLUE!!!
    Gotta luv ya!
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Ciao
    PS: Brantley’s 1 for 1 so far,…
    … IN INTERCEPTIONS (already).

  7. @Jack —
    You make me laugh (sometimes)!
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Ciao
    PS: Congratulations are in order, neighbor! The Noles evidently are still a thorn in Spurrier’s side.
    PPS: Where’s your “IGTBAS!?” (Imitation’s the greatest form of flattery!).

  8. Meyer clearly still has the fire; looks like a kid on the sideline!
    Addazio (and Brantley) as bad as, or worse than ever. Don’t have to describe them; you saw ’em.
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Ciao
    Time-stamp = 3:47pm, ET. (late 3rd Qt.)

  9. YYYYYYEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! GO GATORS!
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Chiaaaoooooooooooooooooooomp!
    Time-stamp = 4:47pm, ET.

  10. The Gator offense confuses me. Reed looks like he could be a good player, but he is very inconsistent. Brantley just looks awful out there. Either way, congrats on the win. Urban deserved that. What a run he had.

    I hope you guys saw that Seminole Uprising last night. The New Dynasty has just begun.

    IGTBAS

    Jack

  11. @Jack —
    The Noles showed up! I’ll give you that.
    However, the Cocks lost their running game (the “hit” was just fine, btw, and that’s part of the game – true enough), and they rarely have a legitimate passing game.
    Garcia is streaky, and when he’s bad, he’s as bad as Brantley (who’s bad ALL the time) – and THAT SUCKS!
    Last night was one of those games for Garcia.
    If both FSU and S.Car. “show up” (and remain healthy throughout), I believe The Ol’ Ball Coach takes it (between THESE two units).
    But that’s not how the game works, as we know!
    Besides, again, the Noles DID show up,… and that’s usually the most important thing!
    So again, Congrats!
    BTW, I truly liked Jimbo’s demeanor in his post-game, on-field interview.
    I’d be happy and hopeful with him too…
    … IF I were a prisoner to “that school out west.”
    Ah, but alas, I’m a bond-slave to the Flagship University – the anchor in the geographical heart (not the center of corruption) of our great state,…
    … AND to Jimbo’s roomie!
    With BOOM’s insider relationship with both Johnny-James and the UGly Dawgs, our two most bitter rivalries are going to be more poignant, piercing and pungent than ever!
    IT’S GONNA BE AWESOME!!! [and fun]…
    …I’m just glad we’re the Big Boy School,… huh, sis?!
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Ciaomp!
    (time-stamp = 6:29pm, ET)

  12. JACK, Reed doesn’t know much of the offense. Brantely knows the offense in and out, but he’s not allowed to audible, throw intermediate or deep, and he’s not given the heavy pass protection packages in this spread/option system that he needs to be successful. That’s why you see people ATL GATOR who are totally clueless to the intricacies of the game who bitch and moan and JB, who is basically set up to fail in this system.

  13. JACK, I think FSU came to play, but they don;t win that game if Lattimore plays the full 60 minutes IMO. USC’s O was more or less designed around his ability to take pressure off of Garcia. If you remember, when Lattimore got hurt against UK, what happened? The Cocks’ O went in the tank and Uk stormed back and won the game. Garcia is a much better QB with ML in the game, as he’s about 60% of USC’s offense. When he went down, there went almost the entire USC run-game out the window and the Cocks almost instantly became a one-dimensional passing O, and then FSU was able to defend them much easie, double-team their two big WR’s, and make the TO’s.

  14. Jack, congratulations on your Seminoles win, but they looked pretty sorry too. They don’t look dominant and I am not sure i would be calling them back yet. I bet the Gators win another NCG before the Semis do.

    To coach Urban, thank you so much for all you did for our program. Man this was one of the hardest fought games I have seen. IT WAS NOT PRETTY, but a win is a win. A. Black was huge. It was vintage 2010 Gator Football again, not surprise, I ran out of tums, with Brantley throwing a pick (for 7 points later on) in the first play on offense, common. Burton fumbling the ball in the goal line and Pouncey went back to throwing bad snaps over the QB again. Oh well, I and all of serious Gators fans knew this except for Pat (of course, lol who pick Penn St) but somehow somewhere in our hearts, we expected the outcome we got today. It had to be a big play from the secondary to seal the game since our pass rush has been awful and non-existent. Kudos for Amahn Black he played his guts out. Pouncey did too, after his one bad snap.
    GO GATORS ALWAYS!!! Take Care Coach Urban! Happy New Year to all Gator Nation!!!

  15. Good thing PSU’s staff didn’t watch us play this season. The “Dan Mullen strategy” – hold the ball, no turnovers, eliminate special teams big plays, and force UF’s offense to win the game – might have produced a boring game and a different result. The signature issues for this year’s team were still there: JB inexplicably throwing into coverage while under no rush, a red zone turnover, bad shotgun snaps, and no pass rush. Here’s hoping we keep the good signature things from the Meyer era: game changing special teams play,creating short field for the offense with turnovers, and great secondary play. There is a lot to build on for next year and a lot of talent to work with.

  16. @Jack,
    No magic on Weiss, NFL lock out next season, he wants a paycheck and knew Michigan will not hire him as HC. I’ll take him, even for just a season to help with our new pro style offense.
    Congrats to you and the ‘Noles, too bad Ponder got hurt again. I really liked him, he’d of made a good Gator!
    Look out for us & Weiss next year, nothing like Adazzio!

  17. I would have to disagree with Todd now. I’ve wondered if it’s always Addazio calling for Brantley to throw the under pass which would make no sense, and at times, Addazio did call it I’m sure. I agree that Brantley probably can’t check out of much, though. However, it was painfully obvious that Brantley was screwing up throwing underneat a few times in that game. Meyer threw his headphones down when Brantley threw a 3 yard pass with a wide open receive on the goal line in the middle of the field. Addazio also looked very disappointed. I’ve tried to support Brantley all year saying the play calling sucks, and his line doesn’t protect him, but man, a lot of his problems do come from his own issues in reading the defense and making good decisions. We didn’t have a 3 QB rotation early in the year, so the whole season can’t be blamed on getting in rhythm.
    Brantley is a great kid, so I wish him the best, whether he stays or not. But if he stays, let’s hope Weiss can teach him how to read a defense!

  18. @ Todd

    I played football unlike you I played high school QB unlike you. John Brantley sucks you can live in your dream world but me and everyone else with our heads out our asses can see Brantley is garbage and he will prove it to your clueless a** when he can’t run a pro style offense! What kind of fool calls someone out because difference of opinions your a clown Todd.

  19. @ john s.

    You are actually watching the game and not making excuses for Brantley. At the beginning of the season I was high on Brantley but towards the middle of the year I woke up. People like Todd want to use the offense as an excuse which is understandable, but there are too many times where the guy is clueless after the snap. He can’t read defenses he can’t move the pocket and his accuracy is horrible. But according to Todd that’s all the play callings fault.

  20. @John S —
    Yep. The video evidence was incontrovertible; incriminating for Brantley and exonerating (apart from all the “dive” plays) for Addazio.
    Sorry, Steve, for being unfairly harsh on you. Now things make a little more sense (though it was evident to me from game one or two that JB was hopelessly terrible; not even the “Great Wall of Florida” would’ve helped him).
    Urban saw something fit in you, Steve, to entrust his good name. That should be good enough for me.
    You couldn’t have been all THAT bad, and now we have the evidence on video.
    Steve, I think I’ll pay you a visit on one of the Temple boards to express as much.
    Good luck, God Speed, and GO OWLS!
    Once a Gator, always a Gator???…
    … well, I’m still processing that one!
    ————
    IGTBAG!
    Ciaomp