Rainy day, colder night likely

Mother Nature may be forcing some changes in your Mother's Day activities. The forecast for today includes a 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, including the possibility of severe storms in North Florida.

"This is part of a storm system that was out in the Plains on Saturday and as it moved northeast toward the Ohio Valley, it was dragging a cold front toward our area," said Phil Peterson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville. "We think this will produce some severe weather and that will more likely be in southern Georgia, but it is also a possibility for northern Florida."

This is the same storm system that ripped through the nation's midsection Saturday evening, killing at least 18 people in Oklahoma and Missouri, according to The Associated Press. The storm is moving quickly eastward and slightly to the south, and thus tornado watches have been posted for today as far east as South Georgia.

For North Central Florida, today's forecast includes a high temperature in the upper 80s with southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph and wind gusts up to 30 mph. The chance of rain is 70 percent for this afternoon, which could be in the form of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, even conditions favorable for a tornado.

The cold front will arrive overnight and as it arrives, the chance of rain will decrease to 20 percent. Expect lows tonight in the low 50s, nearly 20 degrees cooler than overnight lows the past few nights.

"We think there will be a gradual moderation in temperatures this week," Peterson said. "By Thursday we should be back into the low 90s."

Boaters may need to come up with a Plan B for this afternoon if they were planning to take mom for a boat ride.

The boating forecast from the National Weather Service office in Ruskin includes southwest winds this afternoon at 15 knots and choppy bay and inland waters, with winds switching to the west late in the day.

Karen Voyles can be reached at 352-359-5656 or kvoyles@gmail.com.