Gauging the gas effect

In discussing why Americans are unlikely to adapt quickly to high gas prices the way Europeans did years ago, University of Florida economist Dave Denslow likes to compare Gainesville to Barcelona.

Gainesville, with its area of roughly 49 square miles, has about 110,000 residents. Barcelona, with an area of roughly 40 square miles, has a population of about 2 million, Denslow said.

"They fit 2 million people in 40 square miles," Denslow said. "That's just an incredibly different style of life. Public transit there is very convenient. If you need groceries, there's most likely a store right there next to you. They have 20 times the density we do. Even in rural areas, European cities are just far more compact than ours."

Denslow is one of many economists and planners to say that the relatively spread-out layout of Gainesville and many other U.S. cities makes it hard for drivers to make fuel-conserving changes to their lives, or at least to change rapidly enough to keep up with skyrocketing gas prices.

As Gainesville residents adjust to paying an average of $3.75 per gallon for regular gasoline, drivers in much of Europe are already paying more than twice that much.

In Norway, drivers are paying an average of $8.73 per gallon of regular gas, according to AIRINC, a research firm that tracks the cost of living in various places throughout the world. In the United Kingdom, drivers are paying $8.38 per gallon, according to AIRINC.

AIRINC spokesman Scott Sutton said in the countries where gas costs the most, it's usually because governments impose a tax on gas sales to make it prohibitively expensive.

Conversely, in countries like Venezuela, where gas costs 12 cents a gallon, governments subsidize gas "to throw people a bone," Sutton said.

"Obviously, proximity to where the gas is coming from matters, but the really big differences are usually subsidies to benefit the populace or taxation to provide a disincentive for consumption," Sutton said.

Denslow said Europeans have adapted so well to high gas prices in part because after World War II, they had to develop their cities in ways that allowed them to get around without the big cars their richer American counterparts were getting used to.

Planners in both Gainesville and Alachua County tout future plans to develop high-density housing and shopping near the UF campus, but those plans are years from becoming reality.

Denslow said European governments also reacted differently than the United States when fuel prices spiked in the 1970s.

"They didn't have domestic oil fields then, so they simply let the price of gasoline go up," Denslow said.

Denslow said he believes that American consumers are starting to make permanent changes as they start to view high gas prices as a permanent fixture in their lives.

"I believe that people will go for more fuel-efficient vehicles next time they shop for cars, and they may start building more high-density developments as the time comes to build new things," Denslow said.

"But houses will last 50 years, offices last a century or more. For the short term, structure is what it is, and we are structured so that adaptations to higher gasoline prices are difficult. Real change can happen here. It just can't happen quickly."

Though drivers in the United States aren't likely to make major changes anytime soon, the time for minor changes is here already, Denslow said.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas in Florida hit $3.66 this week, up from $2.97 this time last year, according to AAA. In Gainesville, the average price was $3.73 this week - a record high - compared to $3.04 a year ago, according to AAA.

Denslow said sales tax figures show that for every Alachua County resident, about 500 gallons of gas per year is consumed. That means the nearly $1 increase in the price of a gallon of gas over the past year is putting a pinch on the pocketbook.

"That's $500 people are not going to spend on everything else, from eating out to clothing to going to the movies," Denslow said.

One arena that may be playing out: Mother's Day shopping.

The National Retail Federation's annual survey on Mother's Day spending found that consumers plan to spend an average of $138.63 this year, compared to $139.14 last year. Though the difference is small, decreases in annual spending for such holidays are rare.

A news release about the survey notes that "gas prices and other economic issues" will be on people's minds as they shop.

Despite all the obstacles, some people in Gainesville are seriously rethinking their commutes, too.

Officials with the University of Florida's Transportation and Parking Services have said participation in UF's carpool program, which offers special parking spots to faculty and staff who commute together, has doubled in recent months.

Other drivers are making major changes to their mode of transportation.

Frank Bova, professor of neurosurgery at UF, said he became interested in Smart cars years before gas prices started to skyrocket. He put his name on a waiting list for the cars as soon as they became available in the U.S. early this year.

When the dealer contacted him last month letting him know a Smart car was available for him, he'd been commuting to work each day in his Mercedes M-Class, which gets about 18 to 19 miles per gallon in town.

The decision to buy a Smart car was easy, Bova said. The Smart, an acronym for Swatch Mercedes ART, is a tiny hybrid that's about as long as many American cars are wide. Bova said his gets about 40 miles per gallon in town.

"I'd been trying to see if I could get a Smart car for a couple years, but when it comes down to buying it, you always think, "Do I really need a commuter car?' " Bova said. "When the phone call came, there was no question, just based on the mental calculations. When about eight gallons of gas can get me 350 miles to 360 miles, there's no reason to drive another car to work."

Amy Reinink can be reached at 352-374-5088 or reinina@gvillesun.com.