Reserve shortage likely
Published: Tuesday, January 25, 2005 at 6:01 a.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, January 25, 2005 at 12:47 a.m.
WASHINGTON - At the current pace of U.S. deployments to Iraq, the Pentagon may be hard pressed by next year to provide enough reserve combat troops suitable for the mission, judging from the military services' own estimates of available manpower.
The notion of running out of reserve troops would have been dismissed only a year ago, but the strain of fighting a longer, harder war than U.S. commanders foresaw is taking a heavy toll on part-time troops of the Army National Guard, Army Reserve and Marine Corps Reserve.
The problem may ease if, as the Bush administration hopes, security in Iraq improves substantially this year as more U.S.-trained Iraqi troops join the fight against the insurgency. But few inside the Army think they can count on such an optimistic scenario.
Of the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq now, nearly 50 percent are from the Guard and Reserve.
The National Guard, with a total force of about 350,000 citizen soldiers, says it has about 86,000 available for future deployments to Iraq - fewer than it has sent there over the past two years. And it has used up virtually all of its most readily deployable combat brigades.
In an indication of the concern about a thinning of its ranks, last month the National Guard tripled the re-enlistment bonuses offered to soldiers in Iraq who can fill critical skill shortages.
Similarly, the Army Reserve has about 37,500 deployable soldiers left - about 18 percent of its total troop strength.
The Marine Corps Reserve appears to be in a comparable position because most of its 40,000 troops have been mobilized at least once already. Officials said they have no figures available on how many are available for future deployments to Iraq.
Both the Army and the Marines are soliciting reservists to volunteer for duty in Iraq.
"The reserves are pretty well shot" after the Pentagon makes the next troop rotation, starting this summer, said Robert Goldich, a defense analyst at the Congressional Research Service.
Among the evidence:
The exception is the South Carolina National Guard's 218th Infantry Brigade, which has had not been deployed to Iraq as a full brigade because smaller groups of its soldiers have been mobilized periodically for homeland defense and numerous missions abroad, including Iraq.
The mix of troops in the U.S. force rotation now under way in Iraq is about 50 percent active duty and 50 percent reserves. But that is set to change to 70 percent active and 30 percent reserve for the rotation after that, beginning this summer, because combat-ready Guard units have been tapped out.
Thus, two active-duty Army divisions that have already served one-year tours in Iraq - the 101st Airborne and the 4th Infantry - have been selected to return in the coming rotation. The 1st Marine Expeditionary Force already is on its second tour in Iraq.
The original expectation, after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, was that a troop withdrawal could begin within weeks. But an unanticipated insurgency - lethal and resilient - changed the picture and led to stress the Army faces today.
In some respects, the use of Army and Marine reservists in Iraq has been a success story. Goldich, the defense analyst, said their performance has generally been excellent. Commanders sing their praise. Yet there is a limit to the reserves' resources, and the limit may be nearing.
It's not the absolute number of reservists that poses a problem. It's the number who have the right skills for what is required in Iraq and who have not already served lengthy tours on active duty since President Bush authorized the Pentagon three days after the Sept. 11 attacks to mobilize as many as 1 million reservists for up to 24 months.
A portion of the best-trained reservists are approaching the 24-month limit, and some senior officials inside the Army are considering whether the limit should be redefined so that mobilizations over the past three years would, in effect, not count against the 24-month limit.
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