Andreu’s Analysis: Tough day in Tally

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Florida State defensive end Brian Burns has the Gators' attention. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

A few weeks ago, I had a strong feeling Missouri was going to upset Florida in The Swamp, but I didn’t act on it. Instead, I went with my head and picked the Gators and therefore missed my pick.

I vowed after that game that I’m going to go with my gut from now on. And my gut is telling me now that Florida is going to lose to Florida State on Saturday.

My gut is telling me that FSU is going to hit some explosive plays on offense early to generate momentum and confidence, and the Seminoles will be tough to stop the rest of the afternoon. I know the FSU offensive line is dysfunctional at times, but those guys held their own against a strong Boston College defensive front a week ago and will play with confidence Saturday.

Offensively, the Gators are going to need to run the ball, and FSU’s defensive strength is stopping the run. So, my gut tells me the Seminoles will load up against the run and put the game in the hands of Feleipe Franks. Once they do that Brian Burns and those guys on the FSU front are going to come after him and pressure him into some poor decisions that will lead to game-changing turnovers.

So, I see a tough time in Tally for Franks and the offense.

Just going with the gut on this one.

Prediction: Florida State 31, Florida 17.

51 COMMENTS

  1. Good theory, Robbie. There might not seem to be such a significant gap between FSU’s 5-6 mark and the Gators’ 8-3 record, but there is. Florida’s defensive liability is deep coverage, which the Noles are equipped to exploit. However, C.J. Henderson is the Equalizer against a speedy wide receiver. The Gators will utilize Kadarius Toney with enough touches to widen the field for Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett to gash FSU’s defensive front. And finally, UF there’s one thing we’ve all seen this year is that Dan Mullen is a superior coach with a better staff than Willie Taggart and his group. Florida wins on a late score against a worn down, demoralized team of Seminoles, in fact, by a score of 31-10.

  2. It is incredible how old age affects some people’s brains and GUTS!

    Robbie is impressed by FSU’s one-point victory over Boston College. The same BC team with seven wins over U Mass 4-8, North Carolina 2-8, Wake Forest 5-6, Temple 7-4, Louisville 2-9, Virginia Tech 4-6 and Miami 6-5. There are two important facts that Robbie forgot to mention, none of those teams are ranked and their combined record is 30-46.

    This is the year that we should beat FSU 5-6, they are not well coached, their offense is #101 (UF #55) and their defense is #76 (UF #32). Our worse loss this year was versus Missouri and our other two losses were to Kentucky #15 and Georgia #5.

    Florida -14. Go Gators!

  3. Robbie…you seriously need to take some Bromo seltzer for your gut dude.
    There you go again tryiing to play prophet of doom.
    The Noles are the ones who’ll be feeling the pressure. Turnovers and sacks are more likely to go UF’s way. And let them go ahead and try to stop the Gator’s multifaceted ground game. They’re gonna have their so-called “defensive strength” measured big time. The Semi’s will be sucking for air by the 4th qrtr. Turn your prediction around…UF 31 FSU 17

  4. Odds makers in Vegas say UF by 7. Football Power Index predicts UF is a 74.8% favorite to win.

    Robbie, I live up here near Tally, know a lot of people over the years at fsu, and their locker room is a mess and has been the entire season. Lots of division and dissention. I can understand after watching us lose to fsu the last five years that it’s tough to pick UF in this one, but the Gators are clearly the better team and will win this game convincingly.

    Robbie, my friend, fsu is bad… and I mean they are an AWFUL football team. willie taggart is not going to do much anything different in this game than he usually does. Do you honestly believe that willie taggart, a guy with a career losing record as a head and with ZERO experience coaching in this rivalry, is going to out-prepare and out-coach Dan Mullen, who is 4 – 0 in this series and coached in the toughest division in CFB for NINE YEARS? Mullen is going to out-prepare, out-coach, and out-play call circles around willie taggart tomorrow. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind about that.

    For starters, where was all this “inspired” play for fsu between 0 – 0 and 5 – 6? fsu’s defense currently ranks #76 in the nation, their offensive efficiency ranks #113. UF leads fsu in turnover ration +6 to -8, and if you’re going to use fsu’s marquee win of the season, a 1 point win over a Steve Addazio coached Boston College with a hurt QB and RB, all I can ask is “Really”?

    You mention losing to Mizzou. Mizzou would put 30 on fsu in the first half, and you seem to forget that UF beat the very USCe team that beat Mizzou a couple of weeks earlier. As a matter of fact, except for one play early-on, we shut USCe’s offense own in the second half of that game.

    I also predicted UF would have an early brain-fart game in it’s transition year (UK), and would hit a slump in the late season (UGA and Mizzou), but would come together and really start to show that Mullen identity in the last three games of the season.

    Voila’! UF goes into Doak on a good roll and looking pretty good.

    I picked fsu to beat us four of the last five years (my only miss was in 2014 when we lost by 5 at Doak on a pick 6 by Treon Harris). I picked fsu to win those games because they were ranked better and higher than UF is almost every statistical team and national ranking category. It was just common sense. Florida is 8 – 3 and ranked #13 in the country and fsu is 5 – 6, and not even ranked in the top 40. Come on Robbie, fsu is just plain bad, but you’ll be feeling a lot better around 3:30 pm tomorrow.

    But this time around, it’s FLORIDA who’s ranked higher in all those statistics. Florida’s DE’s are going to eat fsu’s OL for lunch tomorrow. They’ve allowed around 30 sacks this season, or more. They’re averaging 89 ypg rushing. and fsu’s DL? Allowing 222 ypg rushing. They also allow 31 ppg.

    Dan Mullen is just too much of a fierce competitor and wants to win more than taggart. Mullen will bring his Florida Gators home to Gainesville with a 9 – 3 record.

    • This post is simply excellent. Thanks for that Todd. This is why I read the comments on Gatorsports.

      My concern with this game is the momentum issue. I think it’s a real thing for these FSU kids to catch some positive vibes and feel good about themselves for a change. Plus, the sense I get from the FSU players “talk” is they really want to beat UF. I wonder, do they in fact have an emotional edge? Wanting to beat your rival and salvage a terrible season can be a powerful motivator. Should any of that be a concern? But as we know, what matters is the state of both teams at noon on Saturday, not “talk” during the week.

      Re Robbie, I suspect he is feeling a bit jaded. Why should he trust a team to follow through when UF has let him down so many times over the past decade? Especially with Felipe who is turnover prone. And it’s at Doak, where UF has traditionaly struggled (see SOS; minus of course, the memorable wins we do have). BUT, to that I respond: this is not the UF of the past decade. I suspect the Gators will come in fired up to take down them FSU boys. I’m still picking us, but I get Robbie’s worry. I really think this is a game that can tell us about Dan Mullen’s potential to turn the Gators into something special. If he can coach these guys up and follow through then it is just another piece of evidence that he may in fact be able to get the job done after all. 9-3 for season 1 is a smashing success.

  5. I agree with those who say that the numbers all favor the Gators and that FSU’s win over BC was not exactly a sign of great improvement. On the other hand, it is hard not to feel a bit nervous about the game, given recent history and the fact that the Noles are still have a lot of talent. On balance, though, I would say that the Gators appear to have the better chance and should win if they execute properly.

  6. How can someone who’s only job is to cover a single team be so terrible at predicting their performance? Robbie has been WRONG on every pick other than the UGA game:
    Picked UF vs. UK
    Picked UF to squeak by CSU
    Picked UT vs. UF
    PIcked MSU vs. UF
    Picked LSU vs. UF
    Picked UF vs. Mizzou
    Picked USC vs. UF

  7. I agree that based on records alone that Florida should beat FSU Saturday. BUT, too many times in the fairly recent past Florida has gone to Tallahassee with better or at least equal teams and came back home with another loss. Even this year when it seemed that the Gators was on a hot roll they folded and lost to Georgia and Missouri embarrassingly. So, having not said much, into the breach with another reverse psychology prediction: Noles 77 Gators 7.

  8. Gators 23 to 20. We struggle d at first against vandy. We gave away Georgia and Mizzou was last year all over again. We came back against champ but almost lost. We have the character to win imo just not a blowout. Of course this would be a good chance to begin a real turnaround we’ve teased was going to happen a time or two this year.

  9. Andreau has turned into a “gutless wonder”. NO – FSU WILL NOT DOMINATE THE GATORS TOMORROW. I hope the team read his comments and gets motivated to prove him wrong. This Gator football team has shown the ability to come from behind and win against LSU (a much better team than FSU) and South Carolina. WE WILL WIN THIS GAME AS A TURNING POINT IN THE RIVALRY AND TO PROVE THAT THIS TEAM HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO PLAY ON NEW YEAR’S DAY – GO GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. NO. Florida runs on every play, yes. Run right at Burns. The worst offensive play Florida can have tomorrow is a punt. You can wear down the semi-holes by a power running game right down their throats. Offensively, the semi-holes are as potent as a fart in a tornado. Our front 3 down linemen can easily put pressure on Francios if necessary, but if the semi’s have any sense, they’ll try to run every play as well. That will fall right to our strength. No excuses not to be ready, no excuses not to prepare, and no excuses for losing to the semi-holes. Ground and pound to a 30-14 win.
    Comparing the semi’s win against Boston College is the same thing as Florida beating Vandy. Gives you a good feeling, accomplishes nothing in the end…..except for a number in the win column.

    • “The mission of the college (the FAMU/FSU Mechanical Engineering Program created by the Florida state legislature in 1982) is to provide an innovative academic program of excellence at the undergraduate and graduate levels judged by the highest standards in the field and recognized by national peers; to attract and produce greater numbers of women and minorities in professional engineering, engineering teaching, and research; and to attain national and international recognition of the college through the educational and research achievements and the professional service of its faculty and students.”

      gelco30. Please explain how the above mission statement is a “joke”. What is a joke is your ill informed post about the mutual effort by the two schools to provide high standards of education for your men and women (especially minorities) who have the motivation and desire to excel in the field of mechanical engineering.

      But I am sure I will catch tons on flack on here for stating facts instead of biased alternative facts to promote ones personal agenda (which has nothing to do with football). Feel free to now attack the truth. It is fashionable these days.

        • Yes it does, Weregator. FAMU students who decide that they want to be engineers once on campus and are very good in math have the opportunity to become MEs without transferring from FAMU to FSU. Helps both schools and why the state legislature created the program. And it provides minority students, with less economic resources (not academic abilities hinted at by Gelco 30), to study ME in a program that FAMU also could not afford to provide this students. WIN-WIN for both schools and students.

      • Hey Swampy, it’s semihole week, have you noticed? It’s razz time.
        Now then, the entrance requirements are vastly different between various schools. You can figure out the rest. The minority angle never figured into my razz, nor do I give ONE RAT’S PATOTEE about it. That’s YOUR agenda. If a student from Santa Fe was able to get credits for Pharmacy or Dental school (two curriculums not offered at half ass u btw) at UF, I’d say that lowers the value of same at UF. My agenda here has EVERYTHING to do with football, not social engineering.

        • gelco30. The entrance requirements for FAMU students into the FAMU/FSU ME program are the same as those for FSU students. Your assumption, once again, shows your biased viewpoint. But deny all you want and create alternative facts. Does not change the facts. And, yes, I will challenge posts like the ones you make on here. And you can razz FSU all you want without bringing race into the picture. But you didn’t do that.

          • The entrance requirements ARE NOT the same for all universities, to date, I know of NO ONE who intended to attend f$u, they went when they were not accepted into UF. This is a fact. And you’re right, I AM biased, I went to UF and bleed Orange and Blue, notice the name of this board? YOU brought race into this, not me. Slow day on your nolie board? Tough loss for your team. Try not to inject race into everything you see, you’ll be happier.

          • gelco’s right Swampy; it was you who injected race into the conversation after you read it into gelco’s comments when it was never there to begin with. You’re awfully quick to label someone as biased and bigoted while not being able to see the same traits in yourself. I refer to your earlier negative comments about the rednecks around Jacksonville during Florida-Georgia week. Stop with the false accusations. Your commentary about football is insightful and interesting, but your social commentary, at least in this instance, is way off base.

        • Joe Shiver. The facts in his posts and the facts I presented in my posts totally disagree with your perspective on the issue. And my friends and my encounter in Jacksonville with a redneck just off 1-10 was very real and scary. The information in Geoco’s post about “math” at FSU and FAMU were false, misleading, and biased. Facts are not the same as alternative facts. Nor is truth the same as distortions to support a personal agenda or perspective.

  11. Guys, the FSU offensive line is a center and four guards. They are truly terrible. Francoise has taken a terrible beating this year. I’ll give them two explosives for TDs and a field goal. That’s 17 points. Three explosives and a field goal and they’re still only at 24 points.

    Here are the Noles scoring totals over their last five games: 17 vs Wake Forest, 10 vs Clemson, 28 vs NC State, 13 vs Notre Dame, 22 vs Boston College.

    The Gators are better on the road this year than they are at home, and they average 30+ points a game. The Gators’ special teams are excellent. The Gators have beaten two ranked teams and have light-years better coaching.

    Look, I know everybody is nervous because of the “streak” (now we know how Kentucky felt) and FSU’s current roster talent ratings. BUT FSU IS A MESS THIS YEAR. And the Gators are sitting at 11th in the CFP. Incidentally, the spread has grown steadily all week. It’s now up to 7.5.

    Any Nole momentum from beating BC (ah, the ugly memories of Addazio as Florida’s OC in 2010) might have helped them have more lively practices this week, but it has absolutely no impact once the whistle blows. Ditto for preserving their streak and getting bowl eligible; meaningless once the whistle blows.

    Most of the time, the better team wins.

  12. You really can’t blame Robbie for his prediction. How many of us thought UF would lose to Kentucky or lose to Mizzouri the way we did? We almost lost to USC. Florida MUST play focused and intense in all phases and protect the football. No doubt Mullen will have good play calls and Grantham will dial up what is needed to attach fsu’s offense. However, we need to pressure Francois repeatedly, something that has been an issue all season, and we need to establish the run early and often. Do that and maintain fight and intensity while protecting the ball and Florida wins and wins big. Go Gators!

  13. If my job was to cover, evaluate, assess, and predict ONE thing, and I consistently failed to provide accurate assessments and predictions of that ONE thing, I would lose my job. It doesn’t matter if that is weather, stock prices, elections, or a football team. No one expects 100% accuracy, but no one should tolerate nearly 0% accuracy. Sorry, nothing personal against Mr. Andreu, but Gainesville and Gator fans deserve better writing.